[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 14 10:10:20 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day with several
B-class flares and two C-class flares. Active Region 10978 has
doubled in size over the last 24 hours and increased in magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma/delta). Expect more C-class flares with
a slight chance of a M-class flare for the next three days. The
solar wind stream decreased to 480 km/s and is expected to continue
to decrease to approximately 400 km/s as coronal hole moves out
of geoeffective position. Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was between +/- 5nT for the last 24 hours. The
GONG magnetogram shows an active region with reverse polarity
at approximately north 27 degrees latitude and 50 degrees east
of the central meridian. If this region developed spots it will
be the first spot group of the next cycle (24).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 23122221
Darwin 5 22112211
Townsville 7 23222221
Learmonth 7 23122221
Camden 4 12122111
Canberra 6 23122111
Hobart 7 2-------
Casey(Ant) 10 ---33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2333 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 6 Quiet
15 Dec 5 Quiet
16 Dec 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support has improved due to the recent increase
in sunspot activity. It is presently at near predicted values
and is expected to remain so for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.84E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 603 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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