[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters 
were at normal levels throughout the UT day. Expect similar conditions
over the next few days with a chance of low level solar activity 
from sunspot region 978. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12110111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           4   12111121
      Learmonth            1   11110001
      Camden               2   12110011
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               2   12110100
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0100 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec     4    Quiet 
09 Dec     4    Quiet 
10 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A recurring coronal hole region is likely to produce 
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions on 10 December. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
09 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
10 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec   -25    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
09 Dec   -25    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
10 Dec   -20    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions continued across Equatorial 
PNG and Pacific regions throughout the UT day. Numerous cases 
of moderate and strong sporadic E were observed during night 
time hours at low to mid latitude stations and day and night 
at mid to high latitude stations. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.08E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    53400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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