[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 07

Fri Dec 7 10:24:54 EST 2007

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters 
were at normal levels throughout the UT day. Expect similar conditions
over the next few days with a chance of low level solar activity 
from newly designated sunspot region 978. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111112
      Darwin               4   12111112
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            7   32122122
      Camden               2   11110111
      Canberra             2   12100011
      Hobart               3   12110012
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-321222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec     4    Quiet 
08 Dec     4    Quiet 
09 Dec     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
09 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Dec   -29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec   -30    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
08 Dec   -25    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
09 Dec   -25    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 5 December 
and is current for interval 6-7 December. Significant MUF depressions 
continued over all Australasian regions throughout the UT day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    61500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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