[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 6 10:23:35 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Bz, the north/south
component of the IMF, fluctuated between +/- 5 nT early in the
UT day. Otherwise, solar wind parameters were at normal levels
over the last 24 hours. Normal conditions are expected to continue
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 31221112
Darwin 4 21211112
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 7 311-----
Camden 4 21211111
Canberra - --------
Hobart 5 21311111
Casey(Ant) 9 4--31112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 5 Quiet
07 Dec 5 Quiet
08 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Fluctuations in the solar wind caused active geomagnetic
conditions at high latitudes only, early in the UT day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Dec -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Dec -25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions continued over all Australasian
regions throughout the UT day. Isolated, short-lived cases of
strong sporadic E were observed in all Australasian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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