[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and solar wind parameters 
were at normal levels over the last 24 hours. These conditions 
are expected to continue for the next few days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           6   21222122
      Learmonth            3   21011012
      Camden               3   11111012
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               2   11111101
      Casey(Ant)           7   32221122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              1   0000 1000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec     4    Quiet 
06 Dec     4    Quiet 
07 Dec     3    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
06 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Dec   -34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec   -35    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
06 Dec   -35    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
07 Dec   -30    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 3 December 
and is current for interval 4-5 December. Significant MUF depressions 
continued over all Australasian regions throughout the UT day. 
Numerous cases of moderate to strong sporadic E were also observed 
in all Australasian regions, often causing complete blanketing 
of the HF spectrum. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    12400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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