[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 4 10:15:50 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and solar wind parameters
were at normal levels over the last 24 hours. These conditions
are expected to continue for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 0 00010001
Camden 3 10010222
Canberra - --------
Hobart 0 10001000
Casey(Ant) 5 22221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 4 Quiet
05 Dec 4 Quiet
06 Dec 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
06 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec -35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
05 Dec -35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
06 Dec -35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continued MUF depressions ranging from 10%-30% were
observed over all Australasian regions. Numerous cases of moderate
to strong sporadic E were observed at mainland ionospheric stations
throughout the UT day, particularly at low latitudes. Complete
blanketing of the HF spectrum, persisting for several hours was
common, especially at low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 45300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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