[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 3 10:41:20 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
New region 977 produced a B7.0 class flare at 2005UT. Very Low
activity levels are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
Solar wind varied between 320km/s - 370km/s over the UT day and
is currently ~340km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated
between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12211122
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 6 12222122
Learmonth 6 12222222
Camden 2 10100221
Canberra - --------
Hobart 3 02211111
Casey(Ant) 6 23-21112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2011 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
05 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Fair to Normal conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec -41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec -35 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
05 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 1 December
and is current for interval 1-3 December. Continued MUF depressions
ranging from 10%-30% observed over all regions apart from Antarctic
regions which only experienced mildly depressed conditions. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 66600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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