[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 2 10:43:16 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low activity levels are expected to continue for the next
3 days. Solar wind varied between 360km/s at 0000UT and 320km/s
at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 5 22121112
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 4 21120122
Camden 3 21110---
Canberra - --------
Hobart 3 12112011
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Fair to Normal conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec -30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec -25 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 1 December
and is current for interval 1-3 December. Continued MUF depressions
ranging from 10%-30% observed over all regions apart from Antarctic
regions which only experienced mild depressions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 49700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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