[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 9 09:55:26 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters
were at normal levels throughout the UT day. Expect similar conditions
over the next few days with an increasing chance of low level
solar activity from sunspot region 978.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 10101001
Camden 1 10101011
Canberra 0 00100001
Hobart 1 10100001
Casey(Ant) 7 32321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 4 Quiet
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A recurring coronal hole region is likely to produce
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions for about 48 hours
commencing on 10 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec -20 about 15% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec -20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
11 Dec -15 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 7 December
and is current for interval 8-9 December. Significant MUF depressions
were observed during local night time hours across Equatorial
PNG and Northern Australian regions. Numerous cases of moderate
and strong sporadic E were observed throughout the UT day,
particularly
at low latitude stations. Ionospheric support is showing signs
of recovery with the recent increase in sunspot activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.29E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 36400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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