[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: An east-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery 
during the second half of the UT day 21 Aug. It appears to be 
a far-side event. A small equatorial coronal hole may become 
geoeffective on 25 Aug. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12212211
      Darwin               5   12212211
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            8   22223320
      Camden               3   11112210
      Canberra             3   11112210
      Hobart               3   11112210
      Casey(Ant)           5   12212211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2101 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug     6    Quiet 
24 Aug     6    Quiet 
25 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased marginally over the UT day. 
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions expected for the next two 
days. A mild coronal hole wind stream is anticipated day three, 
resulting in unsettled intervals. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable local enhancements.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug     6    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Aug     6    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times Equatorial/N Aus 
regions. Daytime sporadic E conditions observed Equatorial region. 
Variable daytime enhancements observed Antarctic region. Extended 
periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic regions, 
mostly local night. Expect similar conditons next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:   10.7 p/cc  Temp:    28500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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