[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 24 09:31:16 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nomimal levels. A small
equatorial coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective on
day two of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111110
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 5 22112121
Learmonth 3 12221000
Camden 1 01011000
Canberra 1 10011000
Hobart 2 01112110
Casey(Ant) 4 12112111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0101 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 6 Quiet
25 Aug 12 Unsettled
26 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. A recurrent
coronal hole wind stream is anticipated on day two. Unsettled
conditions expected days two and three with active periods mainly
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions observed at low latitudes. Chance
of disturbed periods mainly at high latitudes days two and three
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Extended periods of sporadic-E observed N Aus region,
resulting in depressed conditions during local day. Extended
periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic regions,
mostly local night. Variable daytime enhancements observed Antarctic
region. Expect similar conditions day one. Chance of disturbances
S Aus/Antarctic regions days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 33000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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