[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady throughout the UT day. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
+/-4nT throughout the UT day. Region 969 (S06E70) was numbered 
today. It appears to have limited flare potential. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212111
      Darwin               4   22112111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   22323101
      Camden               2   11102001
      Canberra             2   11102100
      Hobart               3   11112101
      Casey(Ant)           5   22212111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug     4    Quiet 
23 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests possible unsettled periods day two. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted values. Variable localised enhancements.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug     6    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Aug     6    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times Equatorial/N Aus 
regions. Variable daytime enhancements observed Antarctic region. 
Extended periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic 
regions, mostly local night. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    49500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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