[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 07

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remained steady throughout the 
UT day. There are no significant active regions on the visible 
solar disk. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110011
      Darwin               4   22111012
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            2   21110010
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             1   10010001
      Hobart               2   11110111
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0001 2201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug     3    Quiet 
22 Aug     4    Quiet 
23 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the next 
few days. Recurrence suggests possible unsettled periods day 
three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn and during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable enhancements during local day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug     8    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times Equatorial/N Aus 
regions. Variable daytime enhancements observed Antarctic region. 
Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic regions, 
mostly local night. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    67500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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