[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 18 09:38:57 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24 hours
down to approximately 380 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to remain slightly elevated during the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12111021
Darwin 4 12111122
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 3 12120021
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 2 11111011
Casey(Ant) 7 33211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2223 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed up to 15% at times during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread F and sporadic E conditions were observed at
times at some stations during the past 24 hours and may have
resulted in degraded HF communications at times, otherwise mostly
normal conditions were observed. Spread F and sporadic E conditions
may result in degraded HF communications at times over the next
few days otherwise mostly normal conditions are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 94300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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