[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    65/0               65/0               65/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24 hours 
down to approximately 420 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to continue to decline slowly during 17 August. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22231121
      Darwin               5   22121121
      Townsville           8   22232222
      Learmonth            6   22232120
      Camden               4   22220011
      Canberra             5   22131011
      Hobart               5   11231111
      Casey(Ant)           9   23332122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3311 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug     6    Quiet 
18 Aug     6    Quiet 
19 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F and sporadic E conditions were observed at 
times at some stations during the past 24 hours and may have 
resulted in degraded HF communications at times. Spread F and 
sporadic E conditions may result in degraded HF communications 
at times over the next few days otherwise mostly normal conditions 
are expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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