[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds continued to increase slowly during 
15 August under the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream 
to approximately 490 km/s and are now approximately 450 km/s. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated for 
the next 24 hours and then decline slowly. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33223221
      Darwin               8   32213212
      Townsville          10   33223222
      Learmonth           12   33224321
      Camden               6   22123211
      Canberra             7   23123220
      Hobart               6   22123211
      Casey(Ant)          12   34322231
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1111 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
18 Aug     6    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Aug    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F and sporadic E conditions were observed at 
times at some stations during the past 24 hours and may have 
resulted in degraded HF communications at times. Spread F and 
sporadic E conditions may result in degraded HF communications 
at times over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    27700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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