[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have increased slightly over the past 
few hours from approximately 330 km/s and are expected to continue 
to increase slowly over the next 48 hours under the influence of a
coronal hole solar wind stream. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112012
      Darwin               4   21112012
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            4   21112012
      Camden               4   13201002
      Canberra             2   11002002
      Hobart               3   10112012
      Casey(Ant)           4   22111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
                periods possible. 
16 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Aug     6    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F and sporadic E conditions were observed at 
times at most stations during the past 24 hours and may have 
resulted in degraded HF communications at times. Spread F and 
sporadic E conditions may result in degraded HF communications
at times over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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