[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               65/0

COMMENT: The solar wind is presently at around 350km/s and is 
expected to remain at this level till early 16 August when it 
is expected to go trough a Solar Sector Boundry and gradually 
increase to approximately 500km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/-2nT 
over the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           5   22211112
      Learmonth            5   32211101
      Canberra             0   01001000
      Hobart               1   11011001
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2113 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     4    Quiet 
15 Aug     4    Quiet 
16 Aug    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect unsettled conditions on 16 August due to earth 
transiting a Solar Sector Boundry. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Aug     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Ionograms show no night time trace for most
      of the antarctic region, when a trace is shown
      it is near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug     9    near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug     9    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug     9    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Sporadic E noted at Hobart during local night. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    55000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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