[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 13 09:30:31 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 480
km/s to 400 km/s during the UT day on 12 August. The
north-south component of the interplanetary mangetic field
showed minor to mild fluctuations (upto around +/-4nT)
throughout the UT day, staying southwards for relatively
longer periods of time. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods on some high latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22242111
Darwin 6 22232111
Townsville 10 22243222
Learmonth 9 22243111
Camden - --------
Canberra 7 12143010
Hobart 7 22242110
Casey(Ant) 9 33331211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 3332 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 4 Quiet
15 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The effect of the coronal hole induced high speed
solar wind stream seems to have weakend significantly.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet levels
for the next three days. A weak (21nT) impulse was observed
in the IPS magnetometer data at 1122UT on 12 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of MUF enhancements and depressions observed with
minor to significant degradations of HF conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most parts of Aus/NZ region over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 147000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list