[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 12 08:59:34 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased from 580 km/s to 498 km/s at the time
of this report (23:30 UT) due to the declining influence of the
recent coronal hole region. A period of sustained southward IMF
of around -4 nT was observed between 12 UT and 18 UT. Wind speed
is expected to return to normal levels over the next 48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22323221
Darwin 6 22222121
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 13 33333232
Camden 7 22------
Canberra 7 22322221
Hobart 8 21323221
Casey(Ant) 11 33323231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 1122 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 7 Quiet to unsettled
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Active geomagnetic conditions were observed between
12 UT and 18 UT due to the elevated solar wind speed and sustained
southward IMF (Interplanetary Mean Field). Conditions are expected
to return to Quiet levels over the next 48 hours with the chance
of isolated Unsettled periods over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Fair-poor
13 Aug Normal Normal Fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Cases of strong sporadic E were observed at mid to high
latitude stations throughout the UT day. Propagation conditions
across southern polar regions were poor for most of the UT day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 54500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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