[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Aug             20 Aug             21 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: A new solar region rotating into view around the east 
limb appears capable of C-class flare activity over the next 
few days. Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24 
hours down to approximately 360 km/s. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111011
      Darwin               4   22111111
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            3   22210000
      Camden               0   11000000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               2   10121011
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2100 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Aug     6    Quiet 
21 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the next 
few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F and sporadic E conditions were observed at 
times at some stations during the past 24 hours and may have 
resulted in degraded HF communications at times, otherwise mostly 
normal conditions were observed. Spread F and sporadic E conditions 
may result in degraded HF communications at times over the next 
few days otherwise mostly normal conditions are expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    87100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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