[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 21 09:31:29 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain very low over the next few days. There
are no visible spots on the solar disk. Solar wind speed dropped
steadily from 380-320 km/s over the UT day. The expected high
speed coronal hole wind stream has not yet arrived but the leading
edge may do so in the next 24 hours. A firm arrival time is difficult
to determine due to the unusual shape and location of the coronal
hole. Recurrence suggests the solar wind speed in the leading
edge of this stream is relatively low (<550km/s) so the geomagnetic
impact is likely to be small.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 4 32111101
Camden 2 11101101
Canberra 1 11101001
Hobart 2 11101101
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3221 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 10 Unsettled
22 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet over the
UT day. Expect Quiet conditions to continue until the arrival
of a recurrent high speed solar wind stream when geomagnetic
conditions are likely to become mostly Unsettled, particularly
at high latitudes. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 22-23
April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day,
expected to continue today (21 April). Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions may result in degraded HF at high latitudes and
variable HF conditions at low latitudes 22 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 16 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 11 near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 11 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
over the UT day, expected to continue today (21 April). Some
local minor MUF depressions are possible in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions 21-22 April associated with Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions. Continuing Unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the
wake of a coronal hole may push down the MUFs in the Australian
region 22 April but the effect should only be minor.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 43800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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