[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 20 09:19:50 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain low over the next few days. There are no
spot groups on the visible disk. Solar wind speed ranged between
380-430km/s. A coronal hole is expected to move into geoeffective
position late in the UT day (20 April) resulting in enhanced
solar wind speeds 21-23 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22122111
Darwin 4 21121111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21212111
Camden 3 11121101
Canberra 3 11122101
Hobart 3 12121101
Casey(Ant) 6 23222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 4311 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 11 Unsettled
21 Apr 20 active
22 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the UT day. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions to continue
today (20 April) ahead of the arrival of a recurrent coronal
hole wind stream late in the UT day. Expect Active geomagnetic
conditions 21 April and a return to Quiet-Unsettled conditions
on 22 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day, expected
to continue today (20 April). Elevated geomagnetic activity may
result in degraded HF conditions at high latitudes and variable
HF conditions at low latitudes 21-22 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 16 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 4 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
over the UT day. Expect mostly normal conditions to continue
today (20 April) with the chance of MUF depressions in the
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 21-22 April associated with elevated
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 62700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list