[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 22 09:32:51 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain very low over the next few days. There
are no visible spots on the solar disk. Solar wind speed continued
to drop over the UT day to be just under 300km/s at the time
of this report. The anticipated high speed coronal hole wind
stream has not arrived although it remains possible that the
Earth will pass through some part of the coronal hole wind stream
in the next 24 hours. This is difficult to determine due to the
unusual shape and location of the coronal hole. Recurrence suggests
the solar wind speed in the leading edge of this stream is relatively
low (<550km/s) so the geomagnetic impact may be small.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 2 21100110
Camden 1 01000011
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01000001
Casey(Ant) 4 22210111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1111 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day. Expect
Quiet conditions to continue until the arrival of a recurrent
high speed solar wind stream when geomagnetic conditions are
likely to become mostly Unsettled, particularly at high latitudes.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 23 and a return to Quiet
24 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day, expected
to continue today (22 April). Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
may result in degraded HF at high latitudes and variable HF
conditions at low latitudes 23 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 9 near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 11 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
over the UT day, expected to continue today (22 April). Some
local MUF depressions are possible in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions 22-23 April associated with Unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
Continuing Unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the wake of a
coronal hole may push down the MUFs in the Australian region
23 April but the effect should only be minor.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 29100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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