[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 14 09:48:02 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
and is expected to remain low over the next few days with no
active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed decreased
from 460km/s at 0000UT to be 380km/s at the time of this report.
Bz ranged between +/-2nT over the UT day with brief southward
periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Darwin 2 21111001
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 20100000
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 0 10100000
Hobart 0 10000000
Casey(Ant) 4 22310000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2213 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 4 Quiet
15 Apr 4 Quiet
16 Apr 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours with solar wind speed decreasing. Only brief
southward IMF Bz periods. Expect quiet conditions for next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at low to mid latitudes.
Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal. Similar conditions
are expected for the next three days with the chance of
variable conditions at low and mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed during local day for Equatorial
regions as well as Northern AUS/Southern AUS and NZ regions.
Otherwise ionospheric conditions normal. Expect mostly normal
conditions next three days with the chance of MUF depressions
for Equatorial down to Southern AUS regions due to low ionospheric
support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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