[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 13 09:27:43 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
and is expected to remain low over the next few days with no
active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed increased
over the first half of the UT day then steadily decreased as
the currently geoeffective coronal hole rotates beyond the west
solar limb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 23233221
Darwin 7 22133211
Townsville 9 23233221
Learmonth 15 23235330
Camden 8 22233211
Canberra 8 22233220
Hobart 8 22133221
Casey(Ant) 11 34323211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2210 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 4 Quiet
14 Apr 4 Quiet
15 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased over the first half of the
UT day. This combined with a period of southward IMF Bz resulted
in an unsettled interval of geomagnetic conditions over the mid
part of the UT day. Otherwise conditions were quiet. Solar wind
parameters steadily declined over the second half of the UT day.
Expect generally quiet conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild daytime depressions observed at low latitudes.
Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal. Expect generally normal
conditions next three days with the chance of variable conditions
at low latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times PNG/N Aus regions.
Mild evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus region. Otherwise
ionospheric conditions normal to enhanced. Expect mostly normal
conditions next three days with the chance of variable conditions
Equatorial/N Aus regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list