[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 12 09:34:00 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
and is expected to remain low over the next few days with no
active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed has
remained slightly elevated at around 480 km/s under the influence
of a coronal hole. Solar wind parameters should decline over
the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 7 23222122
Learmonth 5 23221001
Camden 2 12111000
Canberra 2 12111000
Hobart 2 12111001
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2001 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 5 Quiet
13 Apr 4 Quiet
14 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field has maintained a slightly
northward bias over most of the UT day resulting in generally
quiet geomagnetic conditions. Solar wind speed should decline
over the next 24 hours and geomagnetic conditions should remain
generally quiet next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild daytime/evening depressions observed at low latitudes.
Otherwise HF conditions normal to enhanced. Expect generally
normal conditions next three days with the chance of variable
conditions at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 9 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 9 Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 9 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at times PNG/N Aus regions.
Mild evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus region. Otherwise
ionospheric conditions normal to enhanced. Expect mostly normal
conditions next three days with the chance of variable conditions
Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 92400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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