[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 11 09:37:01 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With the influence of the near-equatorial coronal hole region,
solar wind speed reached a high of around 500 km/s at 17 UT before
declining to 450 km/s at the time of this report (23:30UT). The
coronal hole region has now moved beyond a geo-effective position.
Expect wind speed to return to normal levels over the next 48
hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
few days with no active sunspot regions presently visible on
the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22022222
Darwin 6 22022222
Townsville 7 22122322
Learmonth 7 22022322
Camden 4 11022211
Canberra 6 11022322
Hobart 4 11012222
Casey(Ant) 8 23222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 4331 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr 6 Quiet
13 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours with an Unsettled period between 11 UT and 20 UT due
to the elevated solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions over the last 24 hours were
depressed at lower latitudes and enhanced at mid and high latitudes.
At lower latitudes strong sporadic E was observed across all
stations between 10 UT and 15 UT blanketing the entire HF band.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 9 near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 9 near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 9 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support and observed MUFS were enhanced
across Southern Australian regions and depressed across Northern
Australian and Equatorial/Pacific regions over the last 24 hours.
At all Northern Australian and Equatorial stations strong sporadic
E was observed between 10 UT and 15 UT, blanketing the entire
HF band.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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