[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 10 09:32:06 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With the continuing influence of the near-equatorial coronal
hole region, solar wind speed increased to a high of around 500
km/s at 13 UT before declining steadily to 400 km/s at the time
of this report (23:30UT). Solar wind density returned to normal
levels. Solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately elevated
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Solar activity is expected to be
very low for the next few days with no active sunspot regions
presently visible on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 34422011
Darwin 13 44422111
Townsville 14 44432121
Learmonth 17 -5532011
Camden 8 33421001
Canberra 10 34421001
Hobart 8 23422001
Casey(Ant) 14 35431111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 62 (Active)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 0003
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 12 Unsettled
11 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Active between 2 and 8 UT
due to the highly elevated solar wind density. Expect geomagnetic
activity to slowly return to Quiet levels over the next 48 hours.
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0442UT on 09 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions over the last 24 hours were
significantly enhanced after about 8 UT for all but the lowest
latitudes. At low latitudes very strong sporadic E was observed
across all stations throughout the UT day blanketing the entire
HF band for hours at a time.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support and MUFS over the last 24 hours
were significantly enhanced from about 8 UT across all mainland
Australian regions. In Equatorial/Pacific regions very strong
sporadic E was observed across all stations throughout the UT
day blanketing the entire HF band for hours at a time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 17100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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