[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 15 09:39:47 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain low over the next few days with no active
regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed decreased
from 380km/s at 0000UT to be 350km/s at the time of this report.
Bz ranged between 0nT and 5nT for most of the UT day, with a
southward swing to -4nT at 2000UT at which it currently remains.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 12111112
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 23202212
Camden 2 02101002
Canberra 1 02100001
Hobart 1 01100001
Casey(Ant) 4 12211112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 4 Quiet
16 Apr 4 Quiet
17 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours with solar wind speed decreasing. Only southward
IMF Bz period began at 2000UT and is currently at -4nT at the
time of this report. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at low to mid latitudes and
enhancements at high latitudes. Otherwise HF conditions mostly
normal. Similar conditions are expected for the next three days
with the chance of variable conditions at low and mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed during local day for Equatorial
regions as well as Northern AUS/Southern AUS and NZ regions.
Enhanced conditions observed for Antarctic regions during first
half of UT day. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days
with the chance of MUF depressions for Equatorial down to Southern
AUS regions during local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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