[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 7 09:15:55 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity continued to decrease from 400 km/s to 355
km/s by the time of this report at 23:30 UT. A recurring coronal
hole region will move into a geo-effective position in 36 to
48 hours. While the region has weakened since last rotation solar
wind speeds are likely to increase to 500 - 600 km/s for around
72 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
few days with no active sunspot regions presently visible on
the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Darwin 4 21211111
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 4 22210---
Camden 3 11211011
Canberra 2 01211010
Hobart 2 01211010
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1121 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 6 Quiet
08 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
A geo-effective coronal hole region on the solar disk is likely
to increase geomagnetic activity in 36 to 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were close to normal for the
time of year over the last 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 6 near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was close to normal across all
Australasian regions for the time of year over the last 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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