[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 8 09:21:05 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity continued to decrease from 350 km/s to 300
km/s at the time of this report at 23:30 UT. A recurring coronal
hole region will move into a geo-effective position in around
24 hours causing a likely increase in solar wind speed over several
days. Solar wind speeds of around 600 km/s are likely based on
previous rotations. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for the next few days with no active sunspot regions presently
visible on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Darwin 2 11011101
Townsville 5 22122211
Learmonth - --------
Camden 1 10001001
Canberra 0 10001000
Hobart 1 11011000
Casey(Ant) 4 22211110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Camden 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1211 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 6 Quiet
09 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Apr 16 active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the last 24
hours. A geo-effective coronal hole region on the solar disk
is likely to increase geomagnetic activity over the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were close to normal for the
time of year over the last 24 hours. Some moderate and strong
cases of sporadic E were observed at low latitudes during local
night time hours, particularly just after sunset, partially or
completely blanketing the HF band.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 8 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was close to normal for the time
of year over the last 24 hours. Some moderate and strong cases
of sporadic E were observed across Equatorial/Pacific and Northern
Australian regions during local night time hours, particularly
just after sunset, partially or completely blanketing the HF
band.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 27600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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