[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 6 09:15:53 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity continued its decline before stabilising
at around 400 km/s. A recurring coronal hole region will move
into a geo-effective position in 2 to 3 days. While the region
has weakened since last rotation solar wind speeds are likely
to increase to 500 - 600 km/s for around 72 hours. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next few days with no active
sunspot regions presently visible on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22221211
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 2 11210100
Hobart 3 11211110
Casey(Ant) 8 -3321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3322 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 5 Quiet
07 Apr 6 Quiet
08 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The Geomagnetic field was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal for the time of
year over the last 24 hours. Moderate to strong Sporadic E was
observed at low latitudes throughout the local night.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was normal across all Australasian
regions for the time of year over the last 24 hours. Moderate
to strong Sporadic E was observed in Equatorial/Pacific and Northern
Australian regions throughout the local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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