[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has continued to decline and is currently 
325 km/sec. Recurring coronal hole will reach geo-effective position 
over the next 24 hours. As a result expect the solar wind speed 
to increase creating unsettled conditions for the geomagnetic 
field. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121011
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Learmonth            3   21111011
      Culgoora             4   11221121
      Camden               2   11121001
      Canberra             2   11121001
      Hobart               2   11121001
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   3201 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Sep    12    Unsettled 
01 Oct    16    active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled 
today. Due to a recurring coronal hole reaching a geo-effective 
position expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions over 
the next 1 to 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Fair           Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support has been observed in low 
and mid lattitudes over the last 24 hours. Expect this trend 
to continue over the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Sep    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep    -5    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    -5    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    -5    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions in Northern Australian and Equatorial 
regions remain depressed. HF conditions in the Southern Australian 
region are slightly depressed. This is expected to continue over 
the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    72000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"