[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has continued to decline and is currently 
400 km/sec. Recurring coronal hole will reach geo-effective position 
over the next 24 hours. As a result expect the solar wind speed 
to increase creating unsettled conditions for the geomagnetic 
field. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110111
      Darwin               4   22110211
      Learmonth            2   21010201
      Culgoora             2   11110111
      Camden               2   21110100
      Canberra             2   21120100
      Hobart               3   21120110
      Casey(Ant)           8   33321211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2320 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep     6    Quiet 
29 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Sep    16    active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet today. 
Due to a recurring coronal hole reaching a geo-effective position 
expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in 1 to 2 days 
time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Poor-fair      Fair           Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

COMMENT: Low latitudes and Mid latitudes have shown ionospheric 
depressions, particularly during the night hours. Expect improving 
HF conditions over the next several days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Sep    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep     0    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
29 Sep     5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect HF conditions to slowly recover in the Australian 
region over the next 1 to 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 524 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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