[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has continued to decline and is currently 
280 km/sec. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
is mainly neutral fluctuating between +/- 1 nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11201121
      Darwin               5   11112222
      Learmonth            4   11111221
      Culgoora             3   11201121
      Camden               3   11201121
      Canberra             3   10201121
      Hobart               2   00201110
      Casey(Ant)           7   22311222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0011 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep    12    Unsettled 
01 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Fair           Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair   
01 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair   
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Depressed ionospheric support has been observed in low 
and mid lattitudes over the last 24 hours. Expect HF conditions 
to improve over the next several days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Sep     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep     5    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
01 Oct     8    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
02 Oct    11    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions in Northern Australian and Equatorial 
regions remain depressed. Expect HF conditions to improve over 
the next several days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    31900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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