[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 25 09:45:42 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 80/20
COMMENT: An Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) disturbance occurred
from ~18UT on the 23rd to 07UT on the 24th. This was the precursor
to a rise in solar wind speed from 400 to 700 km/sec associated
with a recurrent coronal hole. During the IMF fluctuation the
field strength increased to nearly 30nT and there were rapid
fluctuations in the Bz component causing geomagnetic disturbances.
This disturbance appears to be too soon after a Type II Radio
Emission reported (Begin Time: 2006 Sep 23 1106 UTC Estimated
Velocity: 711 km/s) and before a Type II radio sweep (24th ~1530UT
with estimated shock speed of 660km/s), to be related to either.
There is no information as yet on whether these Type II events
produced geoeffective shock fronts but if they did their arrival
would be expected in the next day or two. AR910 is the only active
region on the disk and is not magnetically active (class alpha),
producing only one B event. Solar wind speed remains high at
700km/sec but IMF Bz is northwards so geomagnetic activity may
slowly increase if high Vsw is sustained.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 17 34444212
Darwin 18 44344213
Learmonth 16 34344222
Culgoora 14 34343212
Camden 19 4--54112
Canberra 20 34454212
Hobart 19 34454112
Casey(Ant) 21 45433233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Charters_Towers 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Camden 65 (Active)
Hobart 82 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 0121 1134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The expected recurrent coronal hole has become geo-effective.
An Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) disturbance occurred from
to a rise in solar wind speed from 400 to 700 km/sec associated
with a recurrent coronal hole. During the IMF fluctuation the
field strength increased to nearly 30nT and there were rapid
fluctuations in the Bz component causing geomagnetic disturbances.
Solar wind speed remains high at 700km/sec but IMF Bz is northwards
so geomagnetic activity may slowly increase further if high Vsw
is sustained. Observed solar Type II activity observed in the
last 24-36 hours may be geoeffecive in the next 24-36 hours causing
disturbances.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Nighttime depressions observed at low latitudes due
to recent geomagnetic activity. Mid-latitudes appear to be holding
but may depress with continued high solar wind speed and geomagnetic
disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 12 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
26 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 14 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread F may degrade communications on 25 Sep if recurrent
coronal hole keeps solar wind speed high, geomagnetic activity
elevated and the ionosphere disturbed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 13.6 p/cc Temp: 30900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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