[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13




IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 910.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12111133
      Darwin               9   22111234
      Learmonth           12   12111245
      Culgoora             6   11111133
      Camden               6   11111133
      Canberra             7   --111133
      Hobart               5   11011133
      Casey(Ant)           9   23211233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0100 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep    22    active 
25 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 21 September 
and is current for interval 22-24 September. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Sep    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Sep     5    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
26 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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