[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 26 09:47:48 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is still elevated from the recurrent
coronal hole, but is declining slowly. Vsw is currently down
to 550km/sec and likely to return to average speeds in a day.
Geomagnetic activity should correspondingly decrease as solar
wind interaction with the geomagnetic field decreases. IMF Bz
was southwards from ~08-11UT, merging with the geomagnetic field
and causing elevated activity. Since 11UT Bz has been predominantly
northwards, and recently oscillating N-S since 19UT with an increase
in solar wind density. The combination of these two conditions
may be causing observed increase in polar geomagnetic activity
as Bz southward has not been sustained. AR910 has decayed to
a plage region with no flares recorded. Flare activity is expected
to be nil in the next 2-3 days in the absence of a new active
region. The Type II radio emissions observed on the 23rd and
24th do not appear to have produced geoeffective shock fronts
from the SOHO spacecraft LASCO C3 imagery.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22132102
Darwin 7 22232112
Learmonth 8 21243102
Culgoora 5 12132101
Camden 4 12132001
Canberra 7 12143002
Hobart 7 12143001
Casey(Ant) 10 33-32113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23 5545 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed observed by ACE spacecraft at L1 is
still elevated at 550km/sec from the recurrent coronal hole,
but is declining slowly and likely to return to average speeds
in a day. Geomagnetic activity should correspondingly decrease
as solar wind interaction with the geomagnetic field decreases.
IMF Bz was southwards from ~08-11UT, merging with the geomagnetic
field and causing elevated activity at polar and mid latitudes.
Bz predominantly northwards from 11UT caused magnetic activity
to decrease. However north-south oscillating Bz since 19UT with
an increase in solar wind density seems to be be causing an observed
increase in polar geomagnetic activity as Bz southward has not
been sustained. There is a slight indication of increasing
mid-latitude
activity also.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Fair Normal Fair
27 Sep Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Low latitudes have shown ionospheric depressions,
particularly
during the daytime and pre-dawn. This is presumed due to geomagnetic
activity from the coronal-hole induced solar-wind speed elevation.
Mid-latitudes appear to be still be holding better but are a
little depressed. conditions should return to normal in a day
as Vsw declines to average.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 10 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
27 Sep 12 Near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial latitudes (PNG, Niue, Nth QLD) have shown
ionospheric depressions, particularly during the daytime and
pre-dawn. This is presumed due to geomagnetic activity from the
coronal-hole induced solar-wind speed elevation. Mid-latitudes
appear to be still be holding better but are a little depressed.
Conditions should return to normal in a day as Vsw declines to
average. Spread F was not as prevalent as expected but did occur
significantly at mid to higher latitudes (e.g. Hobart)
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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