[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole is now located at central meridian. 
Solar wind speed is around 360 km/s at the time of this report. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100010
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Learmonth            2   21200010
      Culgoora             1   11100011
      Camden               1   11100000
      Canberra             0   10100000
      Hobart               1   11100010
      Casey(Ant)           6   33-11111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   4342 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep     6    Quiet 
22 Sep    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the possibility 
                of isolated active period likely in the latter 
                part of the day. 
23 Sep    18    Active to minor storm periods expected. 

COMMENT: The recurrent coronal hole is expected to become
geo-effective in the latter part of 22 September. Magnetic
activity should subside by 25 September. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

COMMENT: Depressions likely on 23 September mostly at high and 
mid-latitudes. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Sep     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs:
At low and mid latitudes, near predicted monthly values with
depressions to 30% mostly during the period 00-07 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at high latitudes.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20-40% 

COMMENT: Depressions likely to around 40% on 23 September. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 562 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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