[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 20 09:53:09 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only a B-class event from region 910. These conditions are
expected to continue for the next 2 days, with a slight chance
of C-class activity. Region 910 has not undergone any growth
in overall spot size or any changes in its magnetic complexity.
Solar wind velocity declined from 600km/s to be just above 450km/s
at the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 32433211
Darwin 8 22332211
Learmonth 9 22333221
Culgoora 9 22432210
Camden 10 32432210
Canberra 11 32433211
Hobart 12 33433211
Casey(Ant) 11 33333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Camden 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 5533 3253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active levels observed over the last 24 hours
due to the high speed coronal hole solar wind stream. Isolated
active periods observed at mid-high latitudes. Mostly unsettled
conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Isolated depressed periods observed for mid-low latitudes
and disturbed HF conditions for high latitudes. A return to mostly
normal conditions are expected over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of 10-20% were observed at times during
local day for Northern Aus. as well as Southern Aus. and NZ regions.
Depressed conditions and periods of disturbed ionospheric support
observed for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Improving conditions are expected for 20 September with mostly
normal conditions to eventuate for all regions over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 234000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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