[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               3   12111002
      Learmonth            2   11012000
      Culgoora             2   11111001
      Camden               1   11011001
      Canberra             2   10012001
      Hobart               2   12012000
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2211 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the possibility 
                of isolated active periods in the latter part 
                of the day. 
23 Sep    18    Active to minor storm periods expected. 
24 Sep    10    Mostly unsettled. 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 21 September 
and is current for interval 22-24 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Depressions likely on 23 and 24 September mostly at
high and mid latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Sep     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% 02-07 UT at Port Moresby. Near
      predicted monthly values at Niue with sporadic E
      observed 01-07 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed up to 30% 00-07 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions in MUFs
      to 30% from 10-13 UT at Canberra and Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values .
23 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                40%.
24 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20-40%.

COMMENT: Spread F likely to degrade communications on 23 and 
24 Sep. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    50700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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