[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: No significant flare activity has been observed during 
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed is around 360 km/s. The Bz 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fell to -10nT 
early in the UT day before settling to slightly positive. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               5   22222102
      Learmonth            6   32222101
      Culgoora             5   22222011
      Camden               8   22223222
      Canberra             4   22222001
      Hobart               6   22233000
      Casey(Ant)           8   3-421111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1211 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep     6    Quiet 
13 Sep     6    Quiet 
14 Sep     7    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Noted some isolated cases of sporadic E at Darwin and 
Mawson stations and Spread F overnight at Hobart. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    22    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Sep    18    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Isolated cases of sporadic E at Darwin and Mawson stations 
and spread F noted at Hobart overnight. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:   16.0 p/cc  Temp:    24200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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