[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: No significant flare activity has been observed during 
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed is around 360 km/s and the 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated 
between +/-5nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111221
      Darwin               4   12211211
      Learmonth            4   11112121
      Culgoora             3   11011122
      Camden               7   22222222
      Canberra             3   10011222
      Hobart               3   11111211
      Casey(Ant)           5   22211221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1100 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Sep     6    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Noted some isolated cases of sporadic E at high latitudes 
and Spread F overnight at Hobart. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep    24    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Sep    24    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Sep    24    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Isolated cases of sporadic E in the antarctic region 
and spread F noted at Hobart overnight. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    17500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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