[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Sep             11 Sep             12 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: No significant flare activity has been observed during 
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed continues to decline and 
is approximately 340km/s at this time. A coronal hole will reach 
geoeffective position on 11 September. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22101001
      Darwin               2   22101001
      Learmonth            2   22001000
      Culgoora             1   1-200001
      Camden               8   22222223
      Canberra             1   12000000
      Hobart               1   12000000
      Casey(Ant)           5   23211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1210 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Sep     6    Quiet 
11 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Sep    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: High speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole may 
cause a slight increase in geomagnetic activity on 11-12 September. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Noted some isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
and Spread F at high latitudes overnight. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Sep    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. 

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    21800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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