[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY

Activity 12 Sep:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Sep             14 Sep             15 Sep
Activity     Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low    Very Low to Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20

COMMENT: Flare activity associated with region 908 has increased 
over the past 24 hours. If this trend persists there is a chance 
of isolated C class flares occuring. Solar wind speed is currently 
around 380 km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22221011
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Learmonth            4   12221011
      Culgoora             3   10221011
      Camden               5   23-21011
      Canberra             3   11221011
      Hobart               3   11221010
      Casey(Ant)           9   33331111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3332 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Sep     6    Quiet 
14 Sep     7    Quiet 
15 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect quiet conditions. A recurrent weak coronal hole 
may lead to unsettled conditions in 3 days time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Enhanced conditions have been observed at all latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Sep    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Sep    24    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Sep    24    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Sep    23    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted enhanced MUFS for the Australian region. This 
trend is expected to continue for the next several days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Unable to access data at this time.

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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