[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: No significant flare activity has been observed during 
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed continues to decline and 
is approximately 475km/s at this time. Over the next several 
days due to emerging flux regions solar activity may increase 
to low levels. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12223211
      Darwin               4   11222111
      Learmonth            5   11223110
      Culgoora             5   12122221
      Camden               7   22123222
      Canberra             6   11133211
      Hobart               7   11233211
      Casey(Ant)          11   33323222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3232 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Some enhanced periods may be observed at equatorial 
latitudes, otherwise mainly normal conditions are expected over 
the next few days. There is also the chance of isolated periods 
of slightly degraded conditions for high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Sep    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values 
08 Sep    18    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Enhanced conditions may be observed at Equatorial latitudes, 
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values are expected for 
the Australian/NZ region over the next 24 hours. There is also 
the chance of isolated periods of slightly degraded conditions 
for high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 536 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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