[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Sep             09 Sep             10 Sep
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: No significant flare activity has been observed during 
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed continues to decline and 
is approximately 420km/s at this time. Over the next several 
days due to emerging flux regions solar activity may increase 
to low levels. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223211
      Darwin               5   22212211
      Learmonth            4   11222210
      Culgoora             4   11212210
      Camden              10   22223332
      Canberra             6   11313210
      Hobart               6   11313210
      Casey(Ant)          13   33333322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2212 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Some enhanced periods may be observed at equatorial 
latitudes, otherwise mainly normal conditions are expected over 
the next few days. There is also the chance of isolated periods 
of slightly degraded conditions for high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Sep    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Sep    16    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Sep    18    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Isolated Spread F occurred at Hobart and Christchurch, 
overnight. Cases of sporadic E were observed in the antarctic 
region. Enhanced conditions may be observed at Equatorial latitudes, 
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values are expected for 
the Australian/NZ region over the next 24 hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 473 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    81400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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