[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Sep             07 Sep             08 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: No significant flare activity has been observed during 
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds have declined slowly over 
the past 24 hours from approximately 600 km/s to less than 500 
km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly 
over the next 24 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22332221
      Darwin               6   22221221
      Learmonth            7   21232221
      Culgoora             7   12331211
      Camden               9   22332222
      Canberra             8   22332211
      Hobart               7   21332211
      Casey(Ant)          10   22332322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             23   4643 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Sep    12    Quiet to unsettled 
07 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
08 Sep     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to continue to decline 
over the next few days to quiet levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Some enhanced periods may be observed at equatorial 
latitudes, otherwise mainly normal conditions are expected over 
the next few days. There is also the chance of isolated periods 
of slightly degraded conditions for high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Sep    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced to near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values 
07 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values 
08 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced conditions may be observed at Equatorial latitudes, 
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values are expected for 
the Australian/NZ region over the next 24 hours. There is also 
the chance of isolated periods of slightly degraded conditions 
for high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 538 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   241000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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