[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 26 09:53:04 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today. 
Solar wind speed continued to remain around 480 km/s until 
1200UT today and then gradually declined to 400 km/s by the 
time of this report. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations 
until around 0900UT today and then remained slightly positive 
during the rest of the UTday. The effect of a recurrent 
coronal hole may start to strengthen the solar wind stream 
late on 27 October. Solar activity is expected to remain very 
low for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               4   22211111
      Learmonth            4   22111201
      Culgoora             5   222102--
      Camden               3   12210111
      Canberra             3   12210101
      Hobart               3   12211101
      Casey(Ant)           6   3--21211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct     6    Quiet 
27 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
28 Oct    20    Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 
24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase over 
the next 48 hours as a recurring coronal hole region moves 
into a geo-effective position. Geomagnetic activity may rise 
to active to minor storm levels on 28 October. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
27 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: MUFs continued to show pre-dawn depressions at 
low latitudes between. Similar depressions at low latitudes 
may be possible for the next few days. An expected rise in 
the geomagnetic activity levels late on 27 October and on 28 
October may result in a depressions in MUFs and degradations 
in HF conditions during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
27 Oct    -2    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
28 Oct    -7    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: The pre-dawn depressions in MUFs, that are being 
observed for the last few days, are expected to continue 
for the next few days. HF conditions may show further 
degradations from the second half of 27 October due an 
expected rise in geomagnetic activity level that is expected 
to start around this time. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 470 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    67000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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